In their recent webinar, Global Economy in 2019, Euromonitor International suggests that the growth momentum in many of the top world economies may have peaked and that there is an expectation of growth to weaken in developed economies in 2019. Euromonitor anticipates that emerging economies, including China, India, Brazil, Mexico and Russia have an estimated GDP growth rate of 4.7% in 2018 and 2019 and will account for 77% of GDP growth.
Euromonitor cites several positive growth factors, including: low interest rate, high confidence in the private sector, fiscal stimulus and recovery in advanced economies’ growth as well as low unemployment in several advanced economies. In addition, Euromonitor mentions many negative global growth factors including: trade war uncertainty, loss of momentum in global trade, the peak and in some cases decline of confidence in the private sector, low interest rates and lower effectiveness of quantitative easing, slow labor productivity growth in advanced economies.
In their webinar, Euromonitor presented several global risk scenarios that impact the probability of change in growth, as well as providing the risk factors facing the global economy.
Euromonitor presented their anticipation of the economies in the following regions:
In the U.S. – Fiscal Stimulus will fade and the trade outlook will worsen.
In the Eurozone – Momentum will be lost.
In the UK – Economic activity has picked up pace, but Brexit poses possible chaos.
In Japan – Growth momentum is fading.
In China – There will be a controlled economic slowdown.
In Russia – The effects of growth boosted by higher oil prices are unlikely to last.
In Brazil – The economic recovery will slow and there is a lacking in measures to reboot the economy.
In India – Traction is building in the economic recovery.
Review full details from the Euromonitor International webinar presented by Daniel Solomon, PhD Economist and Ugne Saltenyte, Macro Analysis Manager.